Written by Mikey Ostrowski
My favorite thing about fantasy football is finding that diamond in the rough. Finding that guy in one of the late rounds that makes a weekly difference for my team. Finding that… steal. In this article, I will be showcasing my favorite player of each round over the first 13 rounds of a PPR draft based on their current ADP.
These are all guys that I would say have the absolute best values in the rounds that they are currently being taken in and should more than likely exceed any expectations that comes with the price you pay for them. I am not one of those people who follow ADP religiously, but I do like to do my research. For example, you’ll find that I have Emmanuel Sanders as my 10th round ADP steal. Am I going to take him in the 10th round? No, I’m going to beat my league mates to it and take him a round earlier. And that’s exactly what this list is; guys that can be taken a little bit ahead of their current ADP.
Let’s get to it.
1st Round: Julio Jones (ADP 1.10)
I don’t know if there is such thing as a steal in the first round, however, Julio at 10th overall is going to be as close as it comes. He’s obviously an elite talent that is incredibly consistent and will rarely disappoint. Matt Ryan and the Falcons are coming off of a very strong campaign and will look to carry that success into 2019, where Julio Jones will undoubtedly remain the focal point of the offense. They’ve got a new offensive coordinator… one that will make sure Julio gets looks in the endzone. If Jones can keep up with the touchdown pace that he left off at, he’ll become a legitimate threat to finish 2019 as the #1 overall fantasy wide receiver. I know we all like to go for those elite running backs in the first round, but if you have to “settle” for Julio, you can’t be that disappointed.
2nd Round: Todd Gurley (ADP 2.02)
Gurley’s ADP has been falling further and further and may reach the end of the 2nd or even the beginning of the 3rd round by the time draft season is over. This. Is. ABSURD. Screwed up knee or not, Gurley was the best running back in all of fantasy football last season. Sure, he may sit out a few games of the season… and those weeks may be rough for you. However, the weeks that you do get to use him, you’ve got a top-5 running back at a top-15 running back price. Would I buy him in the first round? Probably not. Would I buy him over Melvin Gordon at this point? Most definitely. Would I buy him if I saw him at the second pick (or later) in the second round? Oh, hell yeah! By the way, stop buying Henderson. The Rams want to use him as a Chris Thompson type of guy… and those guys are wildly inconsistent from season to season. This backfield is still Gurley’s and he’s not going to share it as much as we think.
3rd Round: Devonta Freeman (ADP 3.09)
I know, I know. Freeman is risky because of his injury past. However, that’s why you can get him as low as the end of the 3rd round right now! Freeman offers legit top-10 upside nearly every week and could very well finish as a top-10 back if he can stay healthy. Think about it; that offense is stellar, Tevin Coleman is gone, and his biggest threat is Ito Smith… seriously, the stars have re-aligned for this guy. I don’t know if I would be comfortable with him as my RB1, as it is extremely risky, but I wouldn’t necessarily hate it. I think he bounces back in a big way in 2019 and should rush for over 1,000 yards and snag double digit touchdowns between the ground and the air.
4th Round: Julian Edelman (ADP 4.01)
Gronk is gone. Gordon is still suspended. Brady is the G.O.A.T… and Edelman is Brady’s favorite target (and only legitimate target for the time-being). I feel like Edelman is constantly looked over, when in reality, he should be a top-30 pick in fantasy drafts. He’s probably one of the best WR2s you could ask for. He’s consistent and is always the biggest threat on the field whenever the Patriots are on offense. If you’re able to snag Edelman as your WR2 in the 4th round, you’ve gotta be pretty pumped about it. He’s a steal at his ADP.
5th Round: Tyler Boyd (ADP 5.06)
Even before AJ Green went down with injury, I was incredibly high on Tyler Boyd. Now that Boyd gets three to five weeks of being the WR1, I’ve bumped him up even more in my rankings. I know the narrative “Boyd is worse without Green”… well, did you know that Boyd only played in three games where there was 1.) no AJ Green and 2.) Andy Dalton playing as quarterback. Two games. Yeah, that’s a great sample size. And if we are going to use that sample size, then we have to use the facts; he had 9.5, 11.1 and 21.5 PPR points in those three weeks. All I see is a semi-bust week, an average week, and a pretty damn good week. So where’s the trend in that? Oh wait, there isn’t one. I am one of Tyler Boyd’s biggest truthers, and I genuinely think he finishes the season as a top-15 wide receiver. The fact that I can grab him midway through the fifth makes me more excited than I’d like to admit.
6th Round: Lamar Miller (ADP 6.07)
Miller’s ADP will be rising now that Foreman is out of the picture. But why? If anything, this was a lateral move that never really affected Miller. I guess his perceived value is better now… I don’t know. Regardless, you’re telling me that I can get a semi-workhorse back midway through the 6th round? Pft, sign me up! I don’t care that he’s not the most talented back around, but I do care about that opportunity. Miller should see plenty of volume on one of the league’s best offenses. If his ADP stays around here I will gladly take him… Hell, I might even take him as an RB2 late in the 5th round depending on how the rest of my draft is looking.
7th Round: Will Fuller (ADP 7.07)
Will Fuller is a great receiver… he just can’t stay healthy. His past two seasons he was averaging over 15 yards per reception and averaged a touchdown every 6 receptions over that same span. He is well worth the gamble in the 7th round because if he can somehow stay healthy, even if only for ten games this season, he’s going to be worth it. He’s a bit too sketchy to be taken as your WR2 but having him as a flex option or a WR3 could be end up being a league-winning decision if Fuller can stay on the field. Very rarely do owners win a championship without taking risks… so take this mid-ranged risk and reap some high-end rewards!
8th Round: Marvin Jones (ADP 8.11)
Marvin Jones is coming off of an injury and has been forgotten as a result of it. Or maybe he’s been forgotten because we’re all too obsessed with Kenny Golladay? Well friends, you might want to remember Jones on draft day. Let me remind you that he saw over 100 targets in 2015, 2016 and 2017… and totaled 816, 930 and 1,101 yards in each of those seasons. Yeah, not bad. He is only one season removed from a 61-1,101-9 stat line and was on pace for over 900 yards and 8 touchdowns before going down with injury in 2018. Let’s not over think this one guys; he’s one of the best buy-low targets in the entire draft.
9th Round: Cam Newton (ADP 9.06)
Cam Newton is a top 5 fantasy quarterback. Cam Newton is a top 5 fantasy quarterback. Cam Newton is a top 5 fantasy quarterback… I could say this a thousand times and somehow people still wouldn’t draft him until the 9th round. Do you remember how great he was before he got hurt last year? Or how great he was the year before? Or how great he was when he was the MVP and the #2 overall fantasy quarterback? He’s got CMC, DJ Moore, Curtis Samuel, Greg Olsen, Torrey Smith… and he’s got his legs. Running quarterbacks are incredibly valuable in fantasy and even at the age of 30, Cam still runs it better than any other quarterback in the league. I cannot stress this enough; wait on a quarterback! Don’t take one in the first 5-6 rounds of your drafts… Wait until the 8th or 9th round, and when the time is right, highlight Cam’s name and smash that draft button. I have no doubt that he finishes as a top 5 quarterback this year.
10th Round: Emmanuel Sanders (ADP 10.03)
He’s fine. He’s literally fine and he’s back in practice. I know the explosiveness issue after an Achille’s injury is scary, but Sanders has been just fine and has looked like his old self in training camp. For crying out loud, the guy put up 868 yards and 4 touchdowns over the course of only 12 games. He had 98 targets through that span as well. Flacco is going to be looking at Sanders early and often, as he is the only veteran receiver on this entire offense. Sanders is a steal and a half in double digit rounds… I’m incredibly surprised that he’s still this low on so many peoples’ draft boards.
11th Round: Dak Prescott (ADP 11.10)
Dak ain’t flashy, but Dak can win you fantasy games. He has consistently been a QB1 since joining the league and should see even better days with Amari Cooper in town. Is he my first choice for my quarterback position? Definitely not. However, if you can draft a solid team over the first ten rounds of your draft, you could be a hell of a lot worse off than having Dak as your QB1. Luckily for all of us, Dak isn’t one of the first twelve quarterbacks off of the board, which means you can take him as a high-end backup. He’s honestly the perfect complimentary pick to Cam Newton in the 9th round. Like I said, Cam is great but there is always an injury risk with a QB who runs as much as he does… so why not get one of fantasy’s most consistent QBs as a safety blanket? Dak is a bargain at the end of the 11th.
12th Round: Delanie Walker (ADP 12.05)
Walker is the only receiving option in Tennessee that isn’t completely destroyed by Marcus Mariota. 2018 was a wash, as Walker got injured in the first game of the season. However, from 2014 to 2017, he surpassed 100 targets and had at least 800 yards in each of those seasons. I’m no rocket scientist, but I’d like to think those numbers are pretty favorable, especially in a depleted tight end position. His 2017 finish would have been good enough to be the TE6 in 2018. So, I’m not going to tell you what to do… but I strongly urge you to make the right decision in the 12th round of your draft.
13th Round: Jordan Reed (ADP 13.11)
Reed is in the same boat as Delanie Walker; a great talent with some injury issue. However, I have to say I’d prefer to have Reed over Walker, even if there is a higher risk of injury. My reason? Dwayne Haskins. I don’t care how good a rookie quarterback is, his favorite target is almost always going to be the tight end… especially if that tight end is as talented as Jordan Reed. I think Reed could see an all-time high in targets in 2019, and if he stays on the field for 16 games, may be the #1 steal of all fantasy drafts in 2019.
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